Sat, Jan 2, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 07 | 116 | 130 |
| LAK | 215 | 09 | 08 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33LAKDwight KingAssists: Marian Gaborik · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:16LAKDrew DoughtyPPGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 7:50PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:09LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:30PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:44PHIRyan White: Holding2 min
- P3 7:28LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13LAKTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Couturier – Raffl7:00
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare8:39
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier5:06
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – White – Laughton2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Medvedev2:29
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Medvedev3:03
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere2:33
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Toffoli12:59
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – King9:51
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Shore – Pearson11:48
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff6:13
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb15:41
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:47
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain9:42
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).