Sat, Jan 2, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 0, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 015 | 015 | 040 |
| FLA | 17 | 26 | 07 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:35FLALogan ShawGWGAssists: Corban Knight · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:41FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Brian Campbell · Tip-in, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 11:18FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:46NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:46FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:42NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46NYRDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P1 15:29FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P2 0:18FLAJaromir Jagr: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:44NYREmerson Etem: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51FLAReilly Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 7:01NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:01FLABrandon Pirri: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:01NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:46FLAWillie Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:47FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello2:07
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg6:18
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller11:23
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Lindberg – Etem4:39
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Girardi10:24
xG 1.11–0.25 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal8:24
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Klein – McDonagh10:44
xG 0.38–0.18 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck8:51
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Smith – Howden2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pirri – Knight – Shaw6:40
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden3:56
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson12:08
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Petrovic12:23
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad12:38
xG 0.11–0.51 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).