Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 011 | 212 | 00 | 231 |
| NJD | 09 | 29 | 08 | 14 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:02NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: David Schlemko, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:02NJDBobby FarnhamAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Stephen Gionta · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 10:54DALPatrick SharpAssists: John Klingberg, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 14:29DALColton SceviourAssists: Jason Spezza, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:47NJDJohn MoorePPGWGAssists: Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:24DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 2:25NJDTyler Kennedy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:26NJDDavid Schlemko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:57NJDJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P2 13:13DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:37DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- OT 1:07DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin6:53
xG 0.78–0.08 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Janmark3:26
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Eakin6:30
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Faksa2:30
xG 0.00–0.13 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg14:56
xG 0.99–0.69 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Jokipakka2:17
xG 0.19–0.08 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers15:12
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSislo – Matteau – Kalinin6:41
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Gionta – Farnham8:04
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Kennedy – Henrique11:01
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri12:57
xG 0.33–1.14 (23%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Larsson12:16
xG 0.65–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Merrill – Severson13:31
xG 0.31–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Moore13:17
xG 0.27–1.10 (20%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).