Sat, Jan 2, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 17 | 112 | 06 | 1 | 433 |
| CBJ | 213 | 07 | 28 | 01 | 2 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:12WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:56CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 11:47WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 16:07WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 4:47CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 5:27WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Tom Wilson, Karl Alzner · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 18:52CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Jack Johnson, Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. CBJ Brandon Dubinsky scored
- 4. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 5. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:24WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:04CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:00CBJRene Bourque: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18CBJRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36CBJDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:15WSHT.J. Oshie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20CBJScott Hartnell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 2:04CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:30WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Laich – Sill – Latta7:19
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:52
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:48
xG 0.54–1.04 (34%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson10:52
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Schmidt2:18
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt15:25
xG 0.63–0.87 (42%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Alzner19:56
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner10:37
xG 1.03–0.59 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Bourque – Foligno – Johansen2:23
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg9:34
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Bourque – Karlsson3:21
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray17:46
xG 1.65–0.80 (67%)attempts 25–16goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout14:54
xG 0.48–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Falk – Savard12:15
xG 0.67–0.71 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).