Sat, Jan 2, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 213 | 17 | 427 |
| SJS | 08 | 19 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14WPGDrew StaffordSHAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 2:45WPGJoel ArmiaGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 9:23SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:55WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 17:17WPGNikolaj EhlersENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:05WPGBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:58WPGToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 3:16SJSJoe Pavelski: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 8:29WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:08WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:29SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58SJSJoe Pavelski: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:13WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:07SJSTommy Wingels: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:07WPGMatt Halischuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Perreault – Ehlers9:15
xG 0.58–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Burmistrov – Lowry11:30
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Stafford – Little8:35
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Armia – Copp6:16
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers16:00
xG 0.90–0.60 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba11:29
xG 0.31–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers2:08
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Couture3:41
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson5:29
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wingels – Hertl – Karlsson3:32
xG 0.01–0.06 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Donskoi2:21
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon6:12
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon2:27
xG 0.01–0.01 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Martin – DeMelo6:38
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).