Sun, Jan 3, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Dallas Stars 5, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 012 | 317 | 541 |
| NYI | 214 | 320 | 110 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Radek Faksa, Travis Moen · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:34NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 13:30DALPatrick SharpAssists: Alex Goligoski, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 18:28NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Frans Nielsen, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 8:13NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
- P2 15:02NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 17:43NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Travis Hamonic, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 1:46DALValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 9:53NYICal ClutterbuckSHGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
- P3 10:19DALValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Colton Sceviour, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
- P3 18:18DALJason SpezzaAssists: Colton Sceviour, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:32DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P1 9:33NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:57DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 10:15DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:19NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:07DALJason Demers: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 5:07DALJason Demers: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:09NYIBrock Nelson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:43NYINick Leddy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:41DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin8:06
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin6:03
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Nichushkin4:10
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Roussel – Janmark3:41
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jokipakka6:32
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Jokipakka2:38
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg11:13
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Nelson – Strome6:47
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:57
xG 0.24–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin8:58
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:43
xG 0.42–0.78 (35%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech12:47
xG 1.27–0.52 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey9:05
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Leddy15:20
xG 0.49–1.31 (27%)attempts 13–27goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).