Sun, Jan 3, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 118 | 012 | 140 |
| FLA | 18 | 010 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:48MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 8:52FLAJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Brandon Pirri, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:06MINNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:58MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P1 17:04MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P2 10:35MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P2 17:00FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:12MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:47FLAAlexander Petrovic: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:02FLABrian Campbell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine7:24
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zucker9:13
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Stoll – Porter – Carter3:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund10:16
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon13:48
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Scandella – Prosser4:20
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin4:16
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Knight – Howden8:37
xG 0.60–0.15 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck7:11
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw8:20
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:18
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Petrovic12:28
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson12:01
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Ekblad12:22
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).