Sun, Jan 3, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 17 | 05 | 120 |
| ANA | 214 | 29 | 012 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51ANARickard RakellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:04ANAKevin BieksaPPGWGAssists: Sami Vatanen, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:01ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, John Gibson · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 6:56WPGTyler MyersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 18:41ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:53ANAChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:53WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:08WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P1 16:00ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P1 18:17ANARickard Rakell: Interference2 min
- P2 7:07ANAPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:56WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:22ANAKorbinian Holzer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:22WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Armia2:40
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Stafford – Perreault – Scheifele6:47
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers4:12
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Copp – Ehlers5:04
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Trouba4:00
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba2:23
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot5:34
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:26
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg9:37
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Stewart – Maroon8:13
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Santorelli – Cogliano9:48
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Lindholm14:09
xG 0.91–0.06 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Manson – Theodore12:10
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen15:30
xG 0.14–0.42 (26%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).