Mon, Jan 4, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 17 | 111 | 11 | 332 |
| STL | 111 | 114 | 013 | 00 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:16STLTroy BrouwerAssists: Alexander Steen, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:42STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 18:46OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 5:01OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 2:33OTTBobby RyanGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Chris Wideman · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:09STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:40OTTAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:12STLCarl Gunnarsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:30OTTShane Prince: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:42OTTMark Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19STLCarl Gunnarsson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 4:57STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Stone11:20
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Smith – McCormick – Lazar5:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Prince4:55
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone4:52
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson18:09
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:06
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Wideman2:00
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Paajarvi12:07
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri13:08
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Jaskin5:46
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Stastny16:01
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Edmundson12:29
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo22:10
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko12:09
xG 0.20–0.34 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).