Mon, Jan 4, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 18 | 016 | 131 |
| COL | 010 | 213 | 210 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:34COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Matt Duchene, Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 11:01LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:20COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Andreas Martinsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 1:23COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 13:02COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:29LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:58LAKDwight King: Interference2 min
- P1 14:08COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:08LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:25COLAndreas Martinsen: Elbowing2 min
- P2 5:24LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:31COLSemyon Varlamov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:36LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:18COLFrancois Beauchemin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:01LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:34COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Grigorenko
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Lucic2:52
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Brown – Lewis – King4:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Andreoff2:43
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nolan – Mersch – Andreoff2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb14:21
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Martinez – Forbort7:35
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – MacKinnon – Martinsen9:42
xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille7:37
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog11:27
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Grigorenko7:24
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie14:16
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson8:14
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Holden3:27
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).