Tue, Jan 5, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 113 | 16 | 329 |
| BOS | 07 | 17 | 113 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:01WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Aaron Ness · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 12:40WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:26BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Brett Connolly, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 10:41WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P3 11:52BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:36WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P1 5:56WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:13BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
- P2 6:52BOSJoonas Kemppainen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:40WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 11:36BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:13WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky14:45
xG 0.41–0.05 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson7:55
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Laich – Sill – Galiev4:22
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:08
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt14:47
xG 0.88–0.06 (94%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Chorney – Ness10:47
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:44
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Ferraro – Spooner11:16
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Randell4:31
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Kemppainen8:27
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Connolly11:32
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug3:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller2:04
xG 0.05–0.02 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).