Tue, Jan 5, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 14 | 19 | 111 | 324 |
| PHI | 112 | 210 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 14:14MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Mark Barberio, Daniel Carr · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:20PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: R.J. Umberger, Scott Laughton · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:12PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Brayden Schenn · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 17:03MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alexei Emelin, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 5:41PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Nick Schultz, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–4
- P3 19:03MTLDaniel CarrAssists: David Desharnais, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:49PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:39MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P2 6:26MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:29PHIRyan White: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03PHIRyan White: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:29MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:41PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Byron5:06
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn3:50
xG 0.13–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:15
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Smith-Pelly5:51
xG 0.03–0.31 (9%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Barberio12:36
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Subban – Beaulieu14:11
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry10:44
xG 0.15–0.82 (16%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Couturier – Raffl11:58
xG 0.96–0.29 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds10:15
xG 0.63–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:48
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton7:15
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas13:54
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz13:18
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Schenn – Gostisbehere10:45
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).