Tue, Jan 5, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 29 | 09 | 15 | 330 |
| PIT | 07 | 014 | 210 | 05 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:47CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 18:46CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brent Seabrook, Andrew Shaw · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 5:54PITSidney CrosbyAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 17:10PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 3:47CHIArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:25PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:14CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min
- P2 11:52PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Danault – Teravainen14:09
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Bickell – Garbutt – Rasmussen5:08
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw15:11
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:05
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson17:53
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Seabrook3:02
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Scuderi – van Riemsdyk6:05
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron15:07
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Cullen – Malkin – Kessel15:11
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Sheary9:20
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Fehr – Porter – Plotnikov6:29
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta15:33
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Daley – Letang4:08
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin16:40
xG 0.44–0.49 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).