Tue, Jan 5, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 113 | 210 | 433 |
| CBJ | 09 | 111 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:22MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:08CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Scott Hartnell, Cody Goloubef · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 12:43MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 19:03MINZach PariseENGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.64 xG3–1
- P3 19:44CBJNick FolignoAssists: Boone Jenner, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.48 xG3–2
- P3 19:46MINMikael GranlundENUnassisted · Snap, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:42CBJGregory Campbell: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:50CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:16CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:16MINDevan Dubnyk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter9:54
xG 0.72–0.07 (92%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Zucker – Fontaine3:20
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Haula – Zucker3:59
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Parise – Coyle5:59
xG 0.26–0.51 (33%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Brodin4:01
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin2:28
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon3:09
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dubinsky – Atkinson2:40
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner6:46
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jenner – Saad – Wennberg3:17
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg7:09
xG 0.15–0.30 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Goloubef12:50
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Prout11:11
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson2:29
xG 0.02–0.03 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).