Wed, Jan 6, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 03 | 18 | 07 | 118 |
| CHI | 115 | 010 | 212 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Artem Anisimov, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 7:33PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:56CHIArtemi PanarinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 18:54CHITeuvo TeravainenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:40PITEric Fehr: Interference2 min
- P2 6:07CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:29PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43PITDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:50CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:17CHIDuncan Keith: Holding2 min
- P3 19:25CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Cullen – Malkin – Kessel4:33
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Porter5:31
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Bonino – Wilson3:22
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Wilson – Plotnikov2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Letang2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Cole6:08
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Dumoulin6:04
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Shaw11:58
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:00
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Bickell – Garbutt – Rasmussen5:14
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen11:34
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson17:14
xG 1.15–0.42 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson12:56
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk14:05
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).