Wed, Jan 6, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 217 | 17 | 010 | 04 | 338 |
| COL | 19 | 110 | 110 | 14 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48COLMatt DucheneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 16:42STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 19:02STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 0:50STLPatrik BerglundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 6:32COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Jarome Iginla, Andreas Martinsen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:31COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:43COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: John Mitchell, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:43COLNate Guenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:12STLJori Lehtera: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:38STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:59COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:26STLTroy Brouwer: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Berglund – Paajarvi11:02
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri9:56
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin7:35
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Stastny12:35
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko13:46
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:11
xG 0.83–0.93 (47%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Edmundson9:11
xG 0.26–0.42 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:53
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon8:37
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille10:46
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen3:08
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Bodnarchuk14:22
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Guenin – Barrie2:38
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Guenin – Redmond10:06
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).