Wed, Jan 6, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 216 | 114 | 438 |
| ANA | 018 | 014 | 07 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54TORPA ParenteauGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:38TORPA ParenteauAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 12:35TORNazem KadriAssists: Leo Komarov, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 2:47TORBrad BoyesAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Shawn Matthias · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:17TORShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- P1 9:24ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:25ANARyan Getzlaf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 13:25TORJames van Riemsdyk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:23ANAShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:56TORRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:56TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:56ANAJosh Manson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:48ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:47ANANate Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:50ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:50ANAPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:50ANACorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:50TORJonathan Bernier: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Grabner – Kadri9:40
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland9:26
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Arcobello6:46
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:01
xG 1.00–1.27 (44%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin12:26
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner12:38
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Hunwick – Rielly14:37
xG 1.18–1.11 (52%)attempts 18–26goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell6:41
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg6:53
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Santorelli – Hagelin3:02
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Santorelli – Cogliano3:40
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Lindholm11:45
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Holzer – Vatanen2:35
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen10:35
xG 0.61–0.90 (40%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).