Thu, Jan 7, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 09 | 111 | 126 |
| LAK | 016 | 011 | 214 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:53LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Michael Mersch · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 8:05LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 10:05TORPeter HollandPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:30TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:26TORRoman Polak: Boarding5 min
- P1 19:26TORRoman Polak: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:26LAKMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:23LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:09LAKLuke Schenn: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:33TORBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:41LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23LAKTrevor Lewis: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri11:11
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Arcobello5:22
xG 0.02–0.39 (5%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland8:39
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:38
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Rielly3:13
xG 0.03–0.03 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Gardiner3:11
xG 0.05–0.26 (16%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin3:59
xG 0.00–0.22 (1%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Carter – Pearson8:35
xG 0.81–0.17 (82%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Brown – Lewis – King9:18
xG 0.50–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli11:01
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Nolan – Mersch6:25
xG 0.34–0.06 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb16:33
xG 1.23–0.14 (90%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez11:42
xG 0.67–0.02 (97%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Schenn12:34
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).