Fri, Jan 8, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 114 | 016 | 136 |
| CAR | 19 | 110 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:09CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Kris Versteeg · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:41CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–1
- P2 14:35CARElias LindholmGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:20CARChris TerryAssists: Jeff Skinner, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 18:59CARElias LindholmENAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:11CBJJack Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:46CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:51CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:50CARAndrej Nestrasil: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:01CARJay McClement: Holding2 min
- P2 11:28CARChris Terry: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:03CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:22CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:22CARBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:19CBJCody Goloubef: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:41CARRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCampbell – Karlsson – Anderson2:03
xG 0.27–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Karlsson – Anderson6:55
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Jenner2:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner5:40
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:52
xG 0.80–0.23 (78%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones14:34
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef11:19
xG 0.72–1.00 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nash – Skinner6:42
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm11:24
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom11:36
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn5:50
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Pesce11:58
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk14:22
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Slavin – Hanifin13:18
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).