Fri, Jan 8, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 012 | 16 | 129 |
| CHI | 111 | 019 | 215 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:26CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 11:37BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 15:01CHIPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:35CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:16CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:30BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27CHIArtemi Panarin: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Moulson – Schaller2:32
xG 0.64–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Girgensons – Schaller2:27
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Girgensons – Eichel6:32
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson10:59
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Weber11:14
xG 1.06–0.23 (82%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen14:32
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Bogosian – McCabe18:30
xG 0.38–0.86 (30%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Shaw13:37
xG 1.20–0.26 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:23
xG 0.95–0.71 (57%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen11:27
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Bickell – Garbutt – Rasmussen4:56
xG 0.10–0.74 (12%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson22:19
xG 1.80–0.62 (75%)attempts 26–13goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Gustafsson14:31
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk2:51
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).