Fri, Jan 8, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 08 | 310 | 327 |
| EDM | 15 | 114 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:20EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:38EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 3:01TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 14:50TBLVictor HedmanUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 15:51TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Vladislav Namestnikov · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:59EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:09EDMBenoit Pouliot: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:52TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:05TBLNikita Nesterov: Interference2 min
- P3 5:11EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Namestnikov3:06
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Boyle – Condra – Brown7:10
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov4:34
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette3:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Nesterov2:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
- Garrison – Sustr11:28
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Coburn – Garrison2:17
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Draisaitl15:35
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:34
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Klinkhammer – Lander – Pakarinen2:52
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu9:42
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Nurse17:56
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Sekera – Davidson14:26
xG 0.46–0.55 (45%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Gryba – Hunt10:28
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).