Fri, Jan 8, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 317 | 02 | 01 | 1 | 328 |
| ANA | 112 | 15 | 119 | 03 | 2 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:36STLRyan ReavesAssists: Patrik Berglund, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:03STLTroy BrouwerAssists: Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:25STLRobby FabbriAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:56ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:32ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 2. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 3. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 4. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 6. STL Jori Lehtera stopped
- 7. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
- 8. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:32ANAJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:32STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:28ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 10:31ANAKorbinian Holzer: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:44STLVladimir Tarasenko: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:44ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:44STLVladimir Tarasenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:46ANAShawn Horcoff: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:16STLAlexander Steen: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:15STLDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:59STLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Reaves – Jaskin8:40
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Brouwer2:38
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Stastny3:07
xG 0.01–0.03 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Paajarvi2:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson5:17
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko8:14
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko5:52
xG 0.02–0.06 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell13:42
xG 0.84–0.19 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg7:26
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Sekac8:58
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Stewart – Maroon5:29
xG 0.01–0.61 (2%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Theodore11:02
xG 0.64–0.12 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm4:50
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen12:07
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).