Sat, Jan 9, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 18 | 114 | 11 | 431 |
| NYR | 08 | 010 | 37 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:45WSHAlex OvechkinPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 3:56WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 5:54NYROscar LindbergAssists: Dominic Moore, Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 9:48NYRKevin HayesAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- P3 13:11NYRViktor StalbergAssists: Keith Yandle, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:54WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–3
- OT 1:25WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:10WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:58NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:57WSHTom Wilson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:26NYRViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:13WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:41NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:41
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Latta – Wilson8:45
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Laich – Carey – Galiev6:30
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky11:23
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt17:08
xG 0.85–0.22 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:30
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Chorney – Ness10:46
xG 0.05–0.42 (11%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Glass – Stalberg6:51
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Fast8:52
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Megna11:26
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller12:08
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal8:39
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle6:00
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle6:40
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).