Sat, Jan 9, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 0, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 02 | 08 | 010 | 020 |
| PHI | 011 | 210 | 210 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:27PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:33PHIEvgeny MedvedevAssists: Matt Read, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 10:58PHIMatt ReadAssists: Mark Streit, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 15:14PHISean CouturierAssists: Radko Gudas, Michael Raffl · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:21NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P2 3:19PHIR.J. Umberger: Delaying game2 min
- P2 6:38PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:06NYIMikhail Grabovski: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:02NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06PHIEvgeny Medvedev: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:09NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:16NYIFrans Nielsen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:46NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:46PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee4:58
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin5:13
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee3:37
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Leddy16:18
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pelech13:25
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Strait – Hickey13:13
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Simmonds9:46
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Laughton10:52
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Couturier – Raffl9:39
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare9:39
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas15:18
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Manning – Medvedev12:24
xG 0.33–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz11:40
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).