Sat, Jan 9, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, San Jose Sharks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 09 | 07 | 028 |
| SJS | 07 | 412 | 312 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:18SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 8:09SJSMatt NietoSHAssists: Tommy Wingels, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 15:33SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 17:29SJSTomas HertlAssists: Justin Braun, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 4:10SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Chris Tierney, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.20 xG0–5
- P3 9:38SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tommy Wingels, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG0–6
- P3 11:22SJSTomas HertlAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:24TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 17:51TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:01SJSPaul Martin: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:45TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:45SJSTommy Wingels: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:45TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P3 0:22SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:01TORShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:43SJSChris Tierney: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Holland6:24
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Parenteau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:15
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Boyes – Matthias – Froese8:53
xG 0.15–0.35 (31%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri8:08
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 2–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Corrado5:36
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner6:44
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:08
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Hertl10:17
xG 1.18–0.40 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 4–0
- Brown – Tierney – Karlsson5:28
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Brown – Wingels – Tierney2:46
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Wingels – Donskoi4:04
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun11:54
xG 1.06–0.13 (89%)attempts 18–9goals 4–0
- Martin – Burns11:33
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:31
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).