Sat, Jan 9, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 215 | 04 | 225 |
| DAL | 011 | 08 | 116 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:34MINRyan CarterAssists: Erik Haula, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 11:20MINThomas VanekGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 16:47DALJamie BennPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:36MINRyan Carter: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:36DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:40MINRyan Carter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:00DALPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Granlund – Niederreiter13:00
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Zucker13:26
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:44
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Stoll – Carter – Haula8:47
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:35
xG 0.93–0.71 (57%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Scandella – Brodin7:55
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin3:59
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Roussel – Nichushkin3:48
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin8:33
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin8:34
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Faksa5:41
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers15:53
xG 0.85–0.23 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak11:27
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:58
xG 0.76–1.16 (39%)attempts 22–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).