Sun, Jan 10, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 118 | 08 | 133 |
| WSH | 212 | 317 | 27 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07WSHJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:58WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 3:32OTTMike HoffmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 6:01WSHZach SillAssists: Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 7:55WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nate Schmidt, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 16:19WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Jason Chimera, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 8:28WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jason Chimera, Aaron Ness · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 9:46WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:42WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:11OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:44OTTMax McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:44WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:44OTTMax McCormick: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:29WSHDmitry Orlov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:28WSHPhilipp Grubauer: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:50WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P2 15:20OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – McCormick5:49
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Michalek – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:54
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Neil – Prince – Pageau2:28
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Michalek – Pageau – Lazar3:54
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki14:53
xG 0.54–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson3:10
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci11:32
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 1–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Sill – Wilson9:07
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:38
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Galiev4:07
xG 0.07–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky5:19
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt16:47
xG 0.85–0.65 (57%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:51
xG 0.26–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Chorney – Ness12:31
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).