Sun, Jan 10, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 212 | 114 | 337 |
| CHI | 215 | 49 | 011 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27CHIBrandon MashinterAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Dennis Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 16:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:39CHIMarian HossaAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 5:10COLMatt DucheneAssists: Carl Soderberg, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 9:18COLMatt DucheneAssists: Alex Tanguay, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 12:25CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 14:31CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Andrew Shaw, Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P2 18:42CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 15:02COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Duchene, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:25CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P3 9:47CHIDennis Rasmussen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon12:57
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 2–3
- Iginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen9:06
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:47
xG 0.22–0.64 (25%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille10:54
xG 0.34–1.00 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Redmond2:49
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Guenin – Redmond7:54
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie18:42
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 17–21goals 2–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin11:48
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Mashinter – Garbutt – Rasmussen7:00
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw12:25
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 14–9goals 3–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen9:00
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – van Riemsdyk13:51
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Rozsival – Gustafsson2:22
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson14:53
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).