Sun, Jan 10, 2016·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 25 | 02 | 07 | 214 |
| EDM | 14 | 014 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22FLAJaromir JagrUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 7:04FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 12:32EDMMark LetestuAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:30EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30FLANick Bjugstad: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:30FLANick Bjugstad: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30FLANick Bjugstad: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:28FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:28EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17FLAJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:21EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:21FLALogan Shaw: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:12
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:57
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw6:30
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Knight – Howden7:35
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson13:04
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Campbell – Ekblad2:27
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Ekblad13:06
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Korpikoski – Letestu10:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Klinkhammer – Lander – Pakarinen6:16
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:48
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Purcell – Hall – Draisaitl13:30
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Davidson10:46
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne16:00
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Nurse15:59
xG 0.33–1.02 (25%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).