Mon, Jan 11, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Florida Panthers 2, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 08 | 011 | 02 | 228 |
| VAN | 013 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:27FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 5:41VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:22VANJake VirtanenAssists: Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:21VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:25FLASteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
- P1 6:32VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:30FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:05FLAWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:07FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:16
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:13
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Howden8:13
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw9:20
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Petrovic15:37
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson18:13
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Kulikov12:08
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVey – Etem – Virtanen3:17
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows3:03
xG 0.18–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata4:10
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen6:05
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev16:57
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Hutton12:21
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Edler – Biega2:08
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).