Mon, Jan 11, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 04 | 013 | 227 |
| LAK | 112 | 110 | 29 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:49DETTomas TatarAssists: Darren Helm, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 18:16DETAlexey MarchenkoAssists: Darren Helm, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:28LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 1:28LAKAlec MartinezPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:07LAKDwight KingENAssists: Trevor Lewis, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:29LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:33LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P1 10:33DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21DETJimmy Howard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist6:01
xG 0.41–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:03
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Richards – Sheahan – Larkin6:44
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Glendening3:18
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarchenko – DeKeyser10:19
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green3:34
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Green – Smith8:05
xG 0.21–0.24 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Mersch – Shore9:31
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Carter – Pearson10:18
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Lucic – Toffoli14:08
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Lecavalier – Lewis – King12:14
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:24
xG 0.97–0.17 (85%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb16:05
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Doughty3:40
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).