Tue, Jan 12, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 19 | 06 | 220 |
| NYI | 217 | 17 | 29 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03NYIRyan StromeAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 10:26CBJWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 12:00NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Thomas Hickey, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:49CBJDavid SavardUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:29NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 5:34NYIBrian StraitAssists: John Tavares, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:49NYIBrock NelsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:11CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:19CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 6:49NYIBrock Nelson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:24NYIBrian Strait: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:37CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:16NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P2 19:20NYINikolay Kulemin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:23CBJJared Boll: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:54NYIBrian Strait: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:32NYIMikhail Grabovski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:32CBJJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:32NYIMikhail Grabovski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:16NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:42CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Dubinsky – Anderson – Rychel2:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Karlsson2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner5:40
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Campbell – Bourque – Boll5:30
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Falk12:01
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard10:41
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Murray – Jones12:21
xG 0.15–0.78 (16%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Tavares – Strome9:10
xG 1.18–0.13 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson6:33
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:38
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin7:19
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Leddy12:38
xG 1.60–0.22 (88%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Hickey9:40
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Strait – Pelech9:00
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).