Tue, Jan 12, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 120 | 113 | 243 |
| CHI | 111 | 26 | 06 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 6:14CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Marian Hossa, Dennis Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:18CHIBrent SeabrookGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 13:36NSHMike RibeiroUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 19:23NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mike Ribeiro · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:42NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:01CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:43CHIAndrew Desjardins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:23CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:57CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57NSHCraig Smith: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:22NSHBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:19CHIArtemi Panarin: Interference2 min
- P3 4:08NSHMiikka Salomaki: Interference2 min
- P3 17:05NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:50CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg4:51
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg3:45
xG 0.40–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Arvidsson3:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hodgson – Jarnkrok3:50
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi14:57
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Jackman – Bitetto10:59
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:13
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Shaw10:48
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Panik – Garbutt – Rasmussen3:28
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Panik – Danault2:03
xG 0.04–0.01 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Teravainen – Panarin8:42
xG 0.06–0.50 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Hjalmarsson14:43
xG 0.98–0.97 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Scuderi – van Riemsdyk10:57
xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson12:10
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).