Wed, Jan 13, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 19 | 15 | 322 |
| TOR | 010 | 015 | 117 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:08CBJBoone JennerAssists: Seth Jones, Kerby Rychel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 16:17CBJAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Justin Falk, Scott Hartnell · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 17:33TORBrad BoyesAssists: Leo Komarov, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 19:59CBJBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:10CBJKerby Rychel: Holding2 min
- P1 8:07TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P1 11:40CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:23CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:56TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Anderson – Rychel8:25
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Saad – Karlsson11:31
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Boll6:26
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Wennberg10:50
xG 0.27–0.91 (23%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones9:19
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard4:45
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Falk – Murray2:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Matthias – Bozak14:16
xG 1.04–0.31 (77%)attempts 29–12goals 0–1
- Boyes – Froese – Leivo3:05
xG 0.51–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland5:53
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Holland – Leivo2:50
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner15:59
xG 1.18–0.40 (75%)attempts 28–18goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly15:08
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 28–11goals 0–1
- Polak – Rielly3:43
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).