Wed, Jan 13, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 0, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 04 | 06 | 015 |
| CGY | 415 | 110 | 111 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56CGYSam BennettGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:52CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 12:01CGYSam BennettAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 17:01CGYSam BennettAssists: Deryk Engelland, Josh Jooris · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 13:20CGYMason RaymondAssists: David Jones, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–5
- P3 19:35CGYSam BennettAssists: Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:32FLAErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min
- P1 19:42FLAJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:26CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55CGYMason Raymond: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw9:55
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Knight8:50
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:33
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:10
xG 0.61–0.86 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Gudbranson3:23
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Campbell2:45
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov3:22
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:32
xG 0.73–0.32 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Bennett11:10
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Jones – Raymond – Granlund12:22
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris10:50
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:57
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Wideman – Russell2:34
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton14:03
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).