Wed, Jan 13, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Ottawa Senators 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 19 | 07 | 125 |
| ANA | 012 | 112 | 314 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:06ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 16:12OTTCurtis LazarUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 15:05ANAShea TheodorePPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 17:28ANACarl HagelinAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:34ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:01ANAChris Stewart: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:43OTTMax McCormick: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:30OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:30ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:01ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:21OTTMarc Methot: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:51OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:51ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:16OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – McCormick – Prince3:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McCormick – Pageau – Lazar2:40
xG 0.01–0.06 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Pageau – Lazar10:25
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Michalek – Hoffman – Zibanejad12:16
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch2:41
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Methot – Wideman2:03
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:12
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg13:39
xG 0.88–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Thompson – Cogliano12:30
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Rakell4:20
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Stewart – Maroon4:02
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Vatanen13:52
xG 0.81–0.39 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Manson – Lindholm15:53
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Theodore2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).