Thu, Jan 14, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New York Rangers 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 113 | 08 | 135 |
| NYI | 010 | 012 | 310 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:14NYRMarc StaalAssists: Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 1:53NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:17NYINick LeddyPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 19:58NYIKyle OkposoENAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:59NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:59NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:59NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P1 19:28NYRDominic Moore: Holding2 min
- P2 2:41NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:58NYRDylan McIlrath: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:58NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:23NYRDylan McIlrath: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Hayes – Fast7:59
xG 0.86–0.56 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stepan – Miller – Megna10:07
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:13
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Stalberg8:33
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh12:26
xG 0.93–0.21 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle5:06
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:18
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:30
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin9:54
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome12:53
xG 0.74–1.04 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson9:04
xG 0.31–0.77 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Strait – Pelech11:52
xG 0.75–0.82 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- de Haan – Leddy14:38
xG 0.75–0.91 (45%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Hickey13:44
xG 0.72–0.93 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).