Thu, Jan 14, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 014 | 18 | 130 |
| WSH | 013 | 215 | 212 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:12WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 12:03WSHKarl AlznerGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 1:37WSHTom WilsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 11:09VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–3
- P3 19:58WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:59VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:20VANLinden Vey: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:31WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 8:31VANAlexander Edler: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:15WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:10WSHMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:55WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Cracknell – Virtanen7:05
xG 0.87–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Burrows – Vey – Etem9:26
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Dorsett10:21
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen3:03
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Hutton13:04
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Biega – Bartkowski14:26
xG 0.74–1.35 (35%)attempts 13–24goals 0–2
- Edler – Tanev17:35
xG 0.45–1.32 (25%)attempts 14–22goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:00
xG 1.31–0.58 (69%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Chimera – Johansson – Wilson9:04
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:17
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Laich – Sill – Galiev4:22
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner18:12
xG 1.32–0.64 (67%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Orlov – Schmidt14:00
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Chorney – Ness11:18
xG 0.54–1.01 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).