Fri, Jan 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 211 | 211 | 429 |
| TOR | 010 | 08 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:07CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 17:13CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 0:21CHIArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Snap, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 3:47TORMorgan RiellyAssists: PA Parenteau, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:48CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:37CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:51TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 3:13TORMartin Marincin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:04TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 16:04TORMatt Hunwick: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:59TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:12TORRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:40CHIArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:32CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin7:53
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Panik – Garbutt – Rasmussen7:00
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen8:35
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw10:50
xG 0.47–0.66 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Scuderi10:06
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson14:49
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Hjalmarsson2:21
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Matthias – Bozak12:34
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Boyes – Froese – Leivo2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Komarov – Grabner – Kadri9:39
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Holland6:26
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner12:15
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:01
xG 0.05–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly11:08
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).