Fri, Jan 15, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 111 | 218 | 03 | 440 |
| TBL | 17 | 26 | 110 | 12 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Nesterov · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:37PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:12TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:47TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:23PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 10:13PITTrevor DaleyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:48PITChris KunitzAssists: Olli Maatta, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 15:21TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Cedric Paquette · Backhand, 0.01 xG4–4
- OT 2:11TBLVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:46TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:47TBLCedric Paquette: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:09PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P2 4:43TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45PITMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:49PITEric Fehr: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:54PITMatt Cullen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:06TBLNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:48PITChris Kunitz: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist12:30
xG 0.42–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Fehr – Rust – Kuhnhackl6:29
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron11:52
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Fehr – Kuhnhackl – Sheary2:05
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Maatta13:32
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Daley – Letang3:10
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin11:45
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Paquette11:22
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov12:27
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette2:07
xG 0.02–0.10 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov11:16
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Hedman9:52
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Coburn – Nesterov7:03
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr13:12
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).