Fri, Jan 15, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 16 | 111 | 224 |
| ANA | 419 | 07 | 09 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Josh Manson, Carl Hagelin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:36ANASami VatanenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 15:04ANAHampus LindholmPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 15:37ANACorey PerryAssists: Shea Theodore, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 1:15DALMattias JanmarkSHAssists: Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 11:58DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:14ANACarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P1 13:32DALAles Hemsky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:16DALAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 5:51ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:08ANANate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:49ANAShawn Horcoff: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:51DALJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Benn2:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sharp – Seguin – Janmark3:38
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves5:28
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin11:36
xG 0.33–0.80 (29%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Jokipakka2:08
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:45
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers11:55
xG 0.29–0.81 (26%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:51
xG 0.92–0.32 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Thompson – Cogliano10:29
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg11:51
xG 0.53–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Maroon – Sekac6:36
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Vatanen10:39
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm15:22
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Stoner – Theodore10:47
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).