Sat, Jan 16, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 15 | 411 | 523 |
| LAK | 18 | 118 | 17 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:37LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 7:48LAKVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 11:34OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 3:05LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Milan Lucic, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 8:08OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 8:34OTTJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 13:10OTTMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:46OTTMark BorowieckiENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.35 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:26LAKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P1 11:25OTTKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P2 6:33OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:00OTTMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P2 19:27LAKJordan Nolan: Interference2 min
- P3 10:34LAKNicholas Shore: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Ryan – Zibanejad2:36
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Michalek – Hoffman – Zibanejad8:16
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Pageau – Lazar8:54
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone3:29
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson3:34
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Methot – Borowiecki9:24
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Claesson14:22
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Lucic – Toffoli12:50
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Brown – Nolan – Shore8:50
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gaborik – Lewis8:42
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Pearson11:28
xG 0.28–1.06 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb14:31
xG 0.32–0.23 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:26
xG 0.04–0.06 (44%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez11:30
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).