Sat, Jan 16, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 113 | 011 | 130 |
| CBJ | 15 | 06 | 110 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Murray, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 6:02COLChris WagnerAssists: Jarome Iginla, Chris Bigras · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 18:53CBJJack JohnsonGWGAssists: Cody Goloubef, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:33COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:29CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P2 7:50COLAlex Tanguay: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:48CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:35COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:07CBJMarkus Hannikainen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille9:06
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Tanguay – Duchene – MacKinnon14:01
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Wagner – Martinsen8:22
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Landeskog10:20
xG 0.18–1.07 (14%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRedmond – Bigras8:53
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov17:58
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie15:52
xG 0.62–1.25 (33%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dubinsky – Atkinson8:45
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg2:14
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jenner – Saad – Wennberg8:25
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner3:52
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Jones18:09
xG 1.47–0.74 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Johnson – Goloubef16:08
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Falk – Prout11:42
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).