Sat, Jan 16, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 017 | 222 | 19 | 01 | 349 |
| STL | 19 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34STLRobby FabbriAssists: Jori Lehtera, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 3:41MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:24MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:31STLPaul StastnyAssists: Colton Parayko, Patrik Berglund · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:51MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 14:35STLTy RattieAssists: David Backes, Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 2:04STLJori LehteraGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:58STLTy Rattie: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:59STLChris Butler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:41STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:01MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01STLTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:01STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:41STLKevin Shattenkirk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:16MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:05
xG 1.38–0.19 (88%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Desharnais – Weise – Galchenyuk8:23
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Flynn – de la Rose8:54
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Byron – Eller8:55
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban12:23
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Barberio – Beaulieu10:30
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 1–2
- Emelin – Petry13:55
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri9:16
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Backes – Berglund – Rattie8:54
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Stastny10:12
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:16
xG 0.03–0.48 (6%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko10:04
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko2:29
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Pietrangelo2:13
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).