Sat, Jan 16, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 113 | 08 | 213 | 01 | 335 |
| SJS | 016 | 214 | 16 | 13 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15DALAles HemskyAssists: Mattias Janmark, Antoine Roussel · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:54SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:07SJSChris TierneyPPAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 0:33DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:51SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicPPAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:03DALJason SpezzaAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:12SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:41SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:13DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:49SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:25DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin5:42
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Sharp – Eakin – Nichushkin4:25
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Sceviour6:12
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Nichushkin9:19
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg13:14
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Demers – Nemeth6:50
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Klingberg6:55
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Tierney – Karlsson4:13
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Nieto12:03
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl15:12
xG 0.62–0.51 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Couture – Wingels – Donskoi10:10
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns15:25
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon2:57
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Dillon2:12
xG 0.01–0.03 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).