Sun, Jan 17, 2016·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 06 | 07 | 022 |
| PIT | 215 | 19 | 28 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54PITOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:05PITConor ShearyAssists: Kevin Porter, Matt Cullen · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 19:23PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 6:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 13:36PITTrevor DaleyAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:25CARBrad Malone: Interference2 min
- P1 15:11PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:36PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:53PITCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:03CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:48CARKris Versteeg: Interference2 min
- P2 18:29CARKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Lindholm5:04
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Gerbe – Lindholm5:27
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Skinner – Nordstrom2:18
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:43
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jordan – Hanifin11:59
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Slavin14:10
xG 0.39–0.45 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Liles – Faulk10:36
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Hornqvist10:45
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Fehr – Rust – Kuhnhackl9:37
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Porter – Sheary6:55
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:27
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Warsofsky11:48
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin13:30
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Daley – Maatta13:02
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).