Sun, Jan 17, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 112 | 04 | 05 | 1 | 226 |
| NYI | 011 | 013 | 122 | 02 | 0 | 148 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:46VANBen HuttonAssists: Daniel Sedin, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 19:09NYIRyan StromeAssists: Nick Leddy, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 3. NYI Kyle Okposo stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:42NYIMatt Martin: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:16VANMatt Bartkowski: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16NYIMikhail Grabovski: Boarding5 min
- P1 18:16NYIMikhail Grabovski: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:54VANAlex Biega: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:54VANJared McCann: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:54NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:45NYIMarek Zidlicky: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:50VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:45NYIRyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:44VANJared McCann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Hansen – McCann5:04
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Sedin – Hansen – Horvat2:16
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Dorsett – McCann4:01
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen4:09
xG 0.01–0.37 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Biega – Bartkowski10:14
xG 0.87–0.99 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Hutton11:50
xG 0.38–0.86 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev14:43
xG 0.32–0.91 (26%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nelson – Strome3:52
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Tavares – Strome5:10
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin4:27
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson4:34
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Leddy16:42
xG 1.36–0.60 (69%)attempts 32–15goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Hickey12:59
xG 1.01–0.58 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Strait – Mayfield10:03
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).