Sun, Jan 17, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 010 | 114 | 127 |
| TBL | 05 | 215 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 18:30TBLAndrej SustrGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 8:06FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 18:36TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:47TBLValtteri Filppula: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 1:15TBLAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:49TBLErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:36FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P3 2:59FLABrandon Pirri: Holding2 min
- P3 4:56TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:38TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:38FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40TBLValtteri Filppula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bjugstad – Shaw4:01
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck5:31
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pirri – Bjugstad – Shaw3:52
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Knight – Howden6:25
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Kulikov10:22
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Campbell – Gudbranson16:07
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic2:36
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Brown12:33
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov11:49
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Condra – Marchessault – Paquette4:54
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Namestnikov7:20
xG 0.29–0.70 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman12:58
xG 1.04–0.66 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Garrison – Sustr12:49
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Coburn – Hedman3:11
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).