Sun, Jan 17, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 111 | 09 | 233 |
| WSH | 18 | 210 | 26 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17NYRChris KreiderAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:01WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:18WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 8:20WSHJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Taylor Chorney, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 17:28NYRChris KreiderAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 4:51WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 18:09WSHJustin WilliamsENAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:32WSHJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:31NYRDan Boyle: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:34NYRDerick Brassard: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58NYRDylan McIlrath: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:36WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:45NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:15WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:20WSHMike Richards: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Kreider5:19
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Fast7:37
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Miller6:46
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller4:53
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – McDonagh10:23
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Yandle – McDonagh2:12
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Johansson – Wilson7:53
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Williams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:27
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Chimera – Richards – Wilson2:03
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:50
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Ness9:26
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Alzner – Schmidt2:39
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:30
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 11–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).