Sun, Jan 17, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 010 | 113 | 229 |
| CHI | 110 | 214 | 29 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40CHIRichard PanikAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 6:16MTLLars EllerAssists: Jeff Petry, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 13:38CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 18:39CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 10:22MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–3
- P3 11:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:36CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Duncan Keith, Andrew Shaw · Deflected, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:13MTLTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55MTLTorrey Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:20CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:32MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:55MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:07CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Byron – Eller4:49
xG 0.51–0.02 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Weise6:00
xG 0.62–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:04
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Byron – Galchenyuk7:13
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry19:16
xG 1.27–0.63 (67%)attempts 23–13goals 1–2
- Markov – Subban12:26
xG 0.75–0.39 (65%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Subban – Beaulieu5:16
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Garbutt – Rasmussen7:49
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:24
xG 0.66–0.86 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Hossa – Toews – Shaw12:17
xG 0.44–0.71 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Danault – Teravainen10:00
xG 0.02–0.45 (5%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Gustafsson10:08
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Seabrook – van Riemsdyk4:32
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Rozsival – van Riemsdyk9:53
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).